Latin American Populism: The World's Coolest Dictator and a Libertarian With a Chainsaw

Dubravskiy P.V.

Abstract

The paper explores the phenomenon of populism in Latin America as represented by two prominent political figures: Nayib Bukele, President of El Salvador, and Javier Milei, President of Argentina. Both leaders embody different approaches to populism, using charismatic leadership and radical rhetoric to mobilize the population and challenge political elites. The paper analyzes the methods through which populism becomes a key tool in the struggle for power and its role in the political landscape of Latin America. The author considers both positive and negative aspects of the use of populism, noting its inevitability in the context of the modern political process. Special attention is paid to how technological advances and social media amplify populist rhetoric and shape the rules of political communication.

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The year 2024 is marked by an unprecedented number of election campaigns around the world, with over 2 billion voters in 50 countries involved. This year was not just the "Year of Elections" — it highlighted the growing influence of populist rhetoric as a tool of political mobilization. Among the many leaders who utilize populism, there are two particularly interesting Latin American presidents: Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and Javier Milei of Argentina.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the phenomenon of populism through the case studies of these two colorful leaders, identify their similarities and differences, and determine how their approaches reflect the common and unique features of populism in Latin America. To this end, we will examine theoretical approaches to the study of populism, the socio-economic contexts of its manifestation, and key aspects of electoral campaigns.

Populism has become the main tool of the modern politician, especially in the face of opposition to the system in which he or she claims power. We see this with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris in the US, Lula da Silva in Brazil, Javier Milei in Argentina, and Geert Wilders in the Netherlands. A feature of modern populism is that it is used by politicians in both authoritarian and democratic political regimes [2]. Another feature is how populism neutralizes the discrepancies between the incumbent and the opposition. In the current context, Nicolás Maduro, who seeks re-election, and first-time candidate Javier Milei will both resort to populism as a major weapon against their rivals.

In our humble opinion, President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador and President Javier Milei of Argentina can be considered the most prominent examples of populists in Latin America. The former was re-elected for a second term in 2024 and the latter became president for the first time in 2023.

This paper seeks to understand why populism has become an indispensable tool in Latin American elections by case-studying two colorful politicians. We are going to define populism, give an overview of the theoretical framework and approaches to this issue, and provide examples of how populism is used in election campaigns today. We shall not take the approach of bluntly interpreting populism as a negative phenomenon, which is most often found in the academic literature [13]. Instead, we will try to explain why populism has become a vital tool in the hands of politicians today.

Populism as a tool of political technology

What we understand as populism is a political strategy in which a politician appeals to the people against elites/establishment or other groups whom he or she accuses of having interests that oppose those of the people [20]. We can frequently hear accusations of bad economic policies, inconsistency with national interests or accusations of corruption by populists against the authorities or their opponents [12].

Among the main features of populists we shall include the following [19]:

— mobilization rhetoric;

— the "insider-outsider" split;

— charismatic leadership;

— the promise of radical change and reform.

Populism can be found both among the representatives of the current government and the opposition. Populists can utilize both left and right ideologies, be pro or anti-democracy. Donald Trump can be considered the most prominent and successful example of a populist today.

He chose "Make America Great Again" as his slogan, implying that the current state of the U.S. does not fit the term "great." The global elite, fake news and the establishment were chosen as the culprits. His unspoken slogan for 2016 was "drain the swamp," referring to Washington's corrupt elite.

Trump's success in the populist arena does not mean he is the only one such politician in the US. While Trump's populism centers on opposing large abstract groups (globalists, establishment, fake news media), his opponent Kamala Harris focuses on something else. Her rhetoric is more tied to specific "enemies" of American happiness — billionaires. Therefore, her program is more selective, though also populist. She proposes to increase corporate tax to 28%, and to impose a 25% tax on billionaires. She does not report on the fact that such laws have no chance of being passed in Congress, nor on the negative impact of tax increases for the rich will have on the poor and middle class in the medium term [8].

Populism is commonplace in today's political technology. A politician who tries to use outdated approaches is doomed to fail. There are several rationales why this is the case [18].

The first is that technological advances have changed modern elections and politics. In the early 2000s, politicians commiserated with the voter in person during outreach or campaigns. Most of the time there were intermediary institutions between them and the voters: mass media, television, direct addresses of the government officials. This is what it looked like before: the party speaker would go to the press scrum and deliver the party's position to the media. With the rise of social media, things have changed, now all a politician has to do is log on to social media during a parliamentary hearing, record a video, post a tweet or a staged pre-recorded TikTok. No party alignment and no intermediaries are required.

The second is that the institutions themselves have been transformed, particularly the media. In the US example, we see that corporate media choose one of the two sides offered. This is partly explainable by the US two-party system. But the level of polarization in American society is also related to media coverage, where key actors choose one side while demonizing the other [15]. We see the clearest example of the media reacting to the opposite ideological side in the case of Donald Trump after two assassination attempts on him. Media coverage of this historic event is close to zero a week after the assassination attempts. Moreover, Donald Trump's opponents, both in the media [5] and represented by his former opponent Hillary Clinton, are shifting responsibility to the politician himself. Biden's phrase about Trump as "an existential threat to the United States" [22] became famous. Similar processes are taking place in Argentina, Brazil, the UK and European countries. Media has turned from an intermediary institution, although working in the interests of sponsors and donors, into an active actor in political processes.

The third is the radicalization of society. Using Javier Milei as an example, we will look at how modern populists are forced to resort to radical rhetoric in order to smash the status quo in their society. We will distinguish two perspectives on contemporary populists. The first is that they are the ones who move society in a particular direction and bear full responsibility for the polarization and radicalization of their country [1]. The other is that populists are forced to act this way because it is the only way for them to win elections. If Javier Milei had played by the established formal rules of campaigning, he would never have won. It is impossible in modern Western societies to be an opposition that abides by all the rules of rhetoric against its opponents. Why? — They will not be heard. Populists resort to radicalism to be heard, to get past the media, which is often biased against them and supportive of the incumbent establishment, and to communicate directly with the electorate. The latter choose them, vote for Trump or Alternative for Germany not so much out of sympathy, but against the current political system that fails to address their problems.

"The coolest dictator in the world"

In the 2024 presidential election, Nayib Bukele consolidated his political capital with about 85% of the vote. Bukele's dominance was also reflected in the results of his Nuevas Ideas party, which won 54 of the 60 seats in parliament, reinforcing its monopoly on the legislature.

Although Nuevas Ideas was originally created as the foundation for Bukele's presidential campaign, during his administration the party became a tool to support his decisions. During his first term, the president often used it as a channel to implement his populist rhetoric. This allowed him to introduce tough reforms to suppress crime, which increased his popularity among the public.

Compared to the 2019 campaign, Bukele's rhetoric in 2024 has become even more emphasized on the opposition between "the people" and "the elites." He framed his campaign messages around two key themes: the fight against crime and the need to protect the country from "external pressure," including criticism from international organizations. Bukele reinforced the personification of his power by presenting himself as the sole guarantor of El Salvador's security and stability.

Nayib Bukele has become one of the most popular politicians not only in his own country with over 80% approval [7], but in all Latin American countries [17].

On the one hand, he is immensely popular for reducing crime in El Salvador, primarily through brutal measures against criminal gangs. In 2015, El Salvador was officially considered the country with the highest per capita crime rate in the Western Hemisphere. There were 103 murders per 100,000 people, with the number of victims reaching 6,650 per year. If we take all of Central America, 35.3% of all homicides happened in El Salvador [3].

The infamous MS-13 criminal gang has come to rule the streets in El Salvador. Government agencies and the media estimated that up to 70% of the country's businesses were under the control of criminal gangs [14].

Since coming to power in 2019, Bukele has actively used the army and police to suppress crime and his rule is perceived by citizens as providing security. By 2023, Bukele achieved the nation's lowest homicide record of 2.4 people per 100,000 [4]. In 2015, the figure was 103.

Bukele was able to establish personal control over key state institutions, including the judiciary. Despite a constitutional ban on re-election, he was able to secure his re-election for a second presidential term, a major step towards further concentrating power in his hands.

One of the key features of Bukele's style of government is the massive campaign against criminal gangs, which included mass arrests of suspects without trials, a de facto weakening of the independence of the judiciary, and an expansion of the powers of the security forces. Such measures have sparked a wave of criticism from international human rights organizations accusing Bukele of human rights violations and departures from democratic norms.

Bukele actively uses social media to maintain his popularity and his successful anti-crime campaigns are widely publicized, allowing him to maintain a high level of approval among the public. And therein lies the reason for his success. He promised to solve a major problem for El Salvador and he solved it while speaking directly to the people. He often holds public events and addresses citizens, voicing plans to build ambitious projects, such as one of the largest prisons in the world. All of this he skillfully highlights on social media and works on his image as a people's advocate.

As if following the maxims of classical populism [11], Bukele very skillfully constructs his positioning and public image. Among his "enemies" are two large groups: crime in El Salvador and globalists, especially the Western media. Calling himself jokingly "the coolest dictator ever" [23], Bukele refers to criticism from Western mainstream media like the NY Times and The Washington Post that accuse him of authoritarian tendencies.

Bukele's campaign was built on constant live-streaming on social media. While his opponents were commenting in the traditional media (TV and newspapers) he was answering voters' questions directly in person. The live broadcasts have become his opportunity to not only answer questions from voters, but also to test hypotheses about what Salvadorians care about.

Both of his campaigns were built on one thing: the idea of radical change. The country had a high crime rate and previous politicians had failed to address the issue. During the first campaign, it was the promise of all-out crime fighting that helped Bukele. Subsequently, his program to reduce street gang violence was called "bukelismo". During his re-election campaign, he focused on highlighting his accomplishments.

In addition to the live broadcasts, Bukele's headquarters and supporters flooded the internet with short video compilations of the politician's speeches. The compilations were often accompanied by fonk music, the genre that was relevant at the time, to project the image of the a courageous politician who keeps all his promises.

In 2024, Bukele received nearly 85%, or 2.7 million votes. His closest opponent, Manuel Flores, received less than 7%, or 204,167 votes. During Bukele's first presidential campaign in 2019, the results were more modest at 53.10% or 1.4 million voters. Carlos Calleja came in second with 31.7% and 857,084 votes. What is interesting is that turnout has not changed much, it was 51% in 2019 and 52% in 2024. Bukele won thanks to the widespread support of youth, middle class, and urban residents.

During the 2019 campaign, young and middle-aged voters (18-45) liked the way he delivered his message to those groups. To the urban population, Bukele offered a fight against corruption and a move away from the traditional parties that have failed to address El Salvador's problems for decades. He attracted the middle class through his proposed economic reforms. He ran on the GANA (Grand Alliance for National Unity) platform and opposed the two historic parties represented by ARENA and FMLN. Combined with his anti-establishment rhetoric, it helped him get disillusioned voters on his side.

He approached the 2024 campaign with an 80% approval rating. His electoral base had changed slightly: instead of the middle class, his main support has come from urban dwellers and the lower strata of the population. His fight against crime had the biggest impact on their standard of living. During his years in office, he was able to pull some conservative voters over to his side, as they saw him as a defender of order and stability. The youth remained Bukele's constant ally, since he was able to strike the right note with them communication-wise.

If we compare Bukele's image from the 2019 and 2024 campaign seasons, on the one hand he has become more modest and on the other, more prominent. In 2019, Bukele was perceived as a politician who was elected by the electorate to radically change the political system. He accomplished this task, albeit with the reservations we mentioned. By 2024, Bukele transformed himself from a reformist politician to a governor politician who implemented a series of successful reforms in the areas of national security, fighting banditry and attracting foreign investment into the country. In 2019 he campaigned on his vision for the country, in 2024 he campaigned on continuing to fulfill that image, but with real results and successes.

Bukele's rhetoric both during his re-election campaign and presidency is built on the following foundations.

1. Know who is in and who is out. In: Salvadorians, Bukele's team. Out: criminals inside the country, globalists outside the country.

2. "Raise the stakes" to "vote or lose" rhetoric. Bukele is directly engaged in the personalization of Salvadorian politics. The main message of his campaign was "without me, El Salvador will fall back to chaos and rampant crime".

3. Create a semantic connection, an association between the bright future with Bukele and the dim future represented by the previous elite without Bukele.

4. Divide the country's history into the pre-Bukele and post-Bukele periods.

5. Intentionally position yourself as neither a left- or right-wing politician. Abandon global ideologemes and act with precision in economic and political matters. Proceed from a pragmatic and universalist rather than a values-based perspective.

Nayib Bukele's populist rhetoric is supported by these five pillars. If he enacts reform, it is "reform for the good of the people." If something does not work out, then "it is our enemies fault".

In addition to rhetorical devices, there are stylistic ones. And by the latter term, we mean literally Bukele's visual style. His external image is as close to the folk image as possible. He favors baseball caps and simple mass-market polos. He likes to take pictures with his wife and family, actively posting them on social networks. He was seen posing with guns and utilizing elements of public image, both as a classic Midwestern U.S. Republican and as a French Europeam politician.

Nayib Bukele is a classic populist. He uses anti-system rhetoric, opposing elites both internally and externally. He communicates directly with the voters and citizens of El Salvador, often bypassing the classic institutions of media and press conferences and official statements. Bukele is a politician who offers simple and quick solutions, and most importantly, effective ones. His fight against crime has become a unique model in Latin America. He quickly secured El Salvador and made the country attractive to international capital and large corporations like Google.

The consequences of such quick decisions remain to be seen and are not subject to massive public discussion. Indeed, along with the mass arrests of gangsters, there have been cases of wrongful arrests and even deaths as a result [4]. Bukele established a hotline for reporting suspicious Salvadorians. Most importantly, the security that Bukele brought is only associated with his personal regime. The big question is: what happens next, without Bukele?

As a classic populist, Nayib Bukele is already declaring the need for greater concentration of power in his hands. He conducts purges within the government and announces a public "witch hunt" among possible corrupt officials. He continues the policy of image secession of himself from the country's political elite while nevertheless remaining in full control. When the question comes up of how to keep El Salvador stable and safe, Bukele has an answer: by keeping power in his own hands.

Chainsaw-wielding madman and libertarian Javier Milei in power in Argentina

In the 2023 presidential election, Javier Milei became the world's first libertarian to hold the world's highest public office. His victory in the second round with 55.69% of the vote was historic for Argentina.

During the primaries (PASO), Milei came in first, but won the presidential election only in the second round. In the first round, when there were more than two candidates, he finished second with 30%, behind Sergio Massa (36.5%). As soon as the second round, Patricia Bullrich, who came in third with 23.8%, endorsed Javier Milei and asked her supporters to back the libertarian in the election. As a result, Milei's success is largely due to the transfer of votes from eliminated candidates, particularly right-wing candidates like Patricia Bullrich.

Milei and Bullrich targeted the same electorate and represented the anti-Kirchnerism flank of the political forces (Kirchnerism is a left-wing political movement associated with the Argentine presidents of 2003-2015 — Néstor Kirchner and his wife Cristina Fernández de Kirchner). Bullrich's support helped Javier Milei convince opponents of Kirchnerism who doubted whether they should give him their support [10].

Javier's main focus was on an anti-system and disillusioned voter who simultaneously disliked the Kirchnerists and their opponents. The libertarian has managed to attract most of the political right, from classical liberals to conservatives.

His intransigent stance on reducing the role of the state and destroying individual agencies, cutting taxes and eliminating multiple regulations in the economy helped him find not only enemies but allies. Leftist parties and media saw Javier as a threat, but his radical rhetoric attracted Argentine political dropouts who decided to support the anti-system politician [6].

During the 2023 campaign, Javier Milei proposed a "libertarian revolution" to reduce the role of the state, dollarize the economy and abolish the central bank. He spoke out against traditional parties and corruption. During the first round, he looked like an outsider who got lucky. His visual style was very different from his opponents — leather jacket or tracksuit, disheveled hair and unflattering remarks about "enemies of freedom".

Javier's advantage in terms of political technology was his social media. If we look at the campaigns of most candidates, we see that they exist in parallel and do not refer to each other. Javier used an online discussion on his Twitter account (now X) to attract more audiences, including his opponents. He was not afraid to use memes and skillfully directed the audience's attention to those politicians with whom he disagreed.

Had Javier been a representative of Argentina's classical parties, such an image would have played to his disadvantage, but the Argentines chose him. Why? Here we can refer to the work of [9], which in the analysis of populism, among others, highlights two important elements: escalation of inflated social expectations and pronounced signs of negative mobilization (pressure of the masses on institutions). Javier Milei's rhetoric has become a reflection of public opinion regarding the current government. Almost from the very start of the campaign, pollsters put him as the favorite to win the election.

He succeeded in accumulating popular irritation with Argentina's established economic system [21]. Nearly 14.5 million voters or 55.69% voted for him, a historic record.

Milei's victory covered 21 of Argentina's 24 provinces, but he lost in Buenos Aires, where support for leftist parties is high. This reflects pronounced geographical differences in electoral preferences. Sociological studies show that his support was higher among the middle class, entrepreneurs and young voters, while the working classes and civil servants mostly supported his opponents.

Milei's rhetoric was built on the opposition between "the people" and "caste," a term he used to describe the political elite, including the Central Bank and traditional parties. The main theme of the campaign was the promise of radical economic reforms such as the elimination of the Central Bank, privatization of state-owned companies and tax cuts. His slogan, "Long live freedom, dammit!" became a campaign symbol that united voters unhappy with the current economic situation.

Such negative but mobilizing rhetoric during the campaign was chosen by him for a reason. If he had behaved like a classic Argentine politician, with moderate criticism, sometimes emotional but more often not, he would not have gotten social media coverage, the media would not have written about him, he would not have been interesting and would not have been able to reach the electorate.

Milei's economic promises included dollarizing the economy, which he believed would solve the problem of hyperinflation, which reached 140% in 2023. However, his economic program drew criticism both inside and outside Argentina for its lack of detailed implementation plans.

He started his media crusade with political shows where everyone yells at each other, but Milei managed to be the loudest voice in the studio. There were many politicians representing the left and right spectrum of ideologies in Argentina, but Javier Milei was the only one who proposed to destroy the status quo [16].

His political toolkit included the following.

1. A rigid insider–outsider opposition, where the insiders include him and the people, and the outsiders are the current government. There were specific enemies in the form of the incumbent president, his opponent Sergio Massa and the Communists, as well as the Central Bank.

2. Loud promises to eliminate the high inflation rate of 140%, cut government ministries, remove officials en masse, and privatize state-owned companies.

3. The hate speech that Javier directed at his opponents. Whereas previously the Bolshevik approach of replacing opponents with enemies was used in world politics, in this election Javier used the tool of the left.

4. Negative voter mobilization. Javier Milei campaigned not for, but against. With a high level of distrust of the government, he became an alternative to the two established political poles in Argentina.

5. Milei set the agenda for the entire campaign and repositioned his opponents throughout the election. The media was discussing Milei and what he said, not his opponent Sergio Massa.

6. The groundwork for the future: Milei immediately chose two countries — Israel and the United States — as Argentina's allies. Usually, presidential candidates running for such office for the first time prefer not to make clear promises about who their country will be friends with.

The campaigns of Bukele and Milei were very different from each other. The first was an incumbent and it was his job to get re-elected for a second term. The classic campaign strategy was to praise the achievements of the first presidential term. Milei's situation was different, he had to first become better known, then get the voter's attention and then convince them to vote.

Conclusion

Contemporary populism in Latin America exhibits a wide range of approaches that reflect both universal and local features of political mobilization. Using Nayib Bukele and Javier Milei as examples, we can identify several key trends that characterize populism as a political phenomenon.

First, both leaders use the anti-systemic rhetoric, but emphasize different things. Bukele is mobilizing support by focusing on fighting crime and restoring national security. Milei, on the other hand, builds his agenda around criticizing the state apparatus and the economic establishment.

Second, economic policy remains an important element of the populist program. Bukele focused on attracting investment and innovation, while Milei proposed a radical dismantling of economic institutions. These differences emphasize the importance of the social and economic context for a populist strategy.

Third, the role of social media in both leaders' campaigns illustrates the changes in political communication. Bukele uses social media to reinforce his image as a popular leader, while Milei uses it to provoke and mobilize through emotional involvement.

Populism remains a powerful tool of political struggle in the context of a crisis of confidence in traditional institutions. However, its forms and content are context-specific. It is important to note that populist success is often based on the promise of simple solutions to complex problems, which can lead to long-term risks to institutional development.

As a result, the comparative study of the Bukele and Milei cases allows for a deeper understanding of the specific features of populism in Latin America and its impact on the political process.

Received 22.10.2024, revised received 27.11.2024.

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