| KOIBs | KEGs | Observers | Violations | |
| Putin | -0.03*** | 0.035* | -0.087*** | 0.011 |
| (0.002) | (0.012) | (0.003) | (0.014) | |
| Zhirinovsky | -0.001 | -0.007* | -0.005*** | -0.006 |
| (0.001) | (0.003) | (0.001) | (0.004) | |
| Zuganov | 0.008*** | -0.027*** | 0.004* | -0.011 |
| (0.001) | (0.006) | (0.002) | (0.008) | |
| Prohorov | 0.02*** | 0.009* | 0.074*** | -0.003 |
| (0.001) | (0.004) | (0.002) | (0.014) | |
| Turnout | -0.003 | 0.054*** | -0.019*** | -0.012 |
| (0.002) | (0.011) | (0.003) | (0.014) | |
| fi | -0.006* | -0.053* | -0.007x | -0.024 |
| (0.003) | (0.022) | (0.004) | (0.025) | |
| fe | -0.002* | 0.042*** | -0.001 | 0.000 |
| (0.001) | (0.011) | (0.001) | (0.000) | |
| Observations | 5241 | 311 | 1819 | 54 |
Notes: Matching is based on a set of observables: number of registered voters, residence
(urban/rural), region (republic/oblast).
Data: Precinct-level electoral data merged with the data on KOIBs/KEGs and election
observation (number of matched units is provided in Observations).
Variables: Listed variables show the difference in vote shares for each candidate, turnout and the finite mixture model’s estimates between KOIB-equipped precincts vs. precincts with ballot boxes (“KOIBs”), KEG-equipped precincts vs. precincts with ballot boxes (“KEGs”), precincts with observers vs. precincts without observers (“Observers”), precincts with violations vs. precincts without detected violations (“Violations”). “Putin”, “Zhirinovsky”, “Zuganov” and “Prohorov” variables stand for the differences in vote shares for Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Gennadiy Zuganov and Mikhail Prokhorov, respectively.
Significance levels: \(^{\times}\)p ≤ 0.1, *p ≤ 0.05,**p ≤ 0.01, ***p ≤ 0.001.