Dubravskiy P.V. Donald Trump's Victory: An Electoral Analysis of the 2024 Campaign. – Electoral Politics. 2025. No. 1 (13). P. 1
Pavel V. Dubravskiy

Political strategist, [email protected]

Donald Trump's Victory: An Electoral Analysis of the 2024 Campaign

Dubravskiy P.V.

Abstract

The paper examines the key factors behind Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election. Special attention is given to sociopolitical shifts in American society, the effectiveness of the Republican campaign, the use of digital political technologies, and strategic outreach to key voter groups in swing states. The research data for the study includes public opinion surveys, electoral statistics, and an analysis of the pre-election period. The author concludes that Trump’s campaign successfully consolidated discontented population groups, made use of economic instability and declining trust in federal institutions, and mobilized conservative voters. The analysis also explores electoral mistakes of Kamala Harris’s campaign team that contributed to lower turnout among traditionally Democratic voters.

Keywords: election campaign, Kamala Harris, political technologies, sociological research, Donald Trump, elections

Trump became the first Republican presidential candidate since 2004 to win both the popular vote and the Electoral College [1]. Every GOP nominee after George W. Bush's record-setting performance had either lost his election (McCain, Romney) or won, like Trump himself did in 2016 — but never with a result like that. He received 3 million more votes than in 2020 and set a new all-time record among Republican candidates for total votes received [16]. Trump faced unprecedented electoral circumstances, running against two different opponents — Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, which was another historic first. He debated Joe Biden, whose poor performance cost him the Democratic nomination, and later faced Kamala Harris. Curiously, Trump did not participate in his own party's presidential primary debates. He also survived two assassination attempts.

He followed Grover Cleveland to become the second American politician to win non-consecutive elections. Trump won all seven swing states that ultimately determine the outcome of an election [28]. As a politician, he improved his performance among nearly all demographic groups, with the exception of white men over 65 and young female college students [2]. New records were set among African American voters, Hispanic voters, and other ethnic groups [11]. Meanwhile, in 90% of congressional districts, voters shifted toward Republicans [17]. The Republican leader also improved his performance geographically, gaining more votes in major cities that traditionally favor Democratic candidates [20]. Most significantly, Trump achieved a "trifecta" by securing Republican majorities in both bodies of Congress alongside a Republican presidency.

This paper analyzes the campaign tools employed in Donald Trump's presidental race. The author examines the candidate's political strategy, details the methods and techniques of voter mobilization, and analyzes the implementation of his communication strategy.

Campaign context

The 2024 electoral campaign unfolded against a backdrop of increased social polarization [5]. The race to the White House was accompanied by an ideological competition at the macro-level — by what in the United States is commonly referred to as "culture wars". The 2024 campaign marked the culmination of a cultural shift toward a more pro-Republican society, at least in the medium term. It is therefore necessary to consider the contextual framework in which this election took place.

At the start of the campaign, Trump was not viewed as the favourite before the primaries (preliminary voting within the party). He faced four criminal cases [15], which divided even conservative voters with some calling for withdrawal of support. At the same time, legal proceedings severely limited his ability to conduct full-scale campaign operations. During the primaries, he faced opposition from multiple Republican figures: Nikki Haley, Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, Tim Scott, Doug Burgum, Chris Christie and Mike Pence. Although Trump held a 20% lead over all other candidates by the time of the first debate [9], his continued participation in the campaign remained uncertain due to the pending criminal cases and required court appearances. Voters were uncertain whether Trump would make it through the primaries. In this situation, he had to run two parallel campaigns — a political one and a legal one.

After winning the primaries, Trump focused on his opponent, Joe Biden. His strategy consisted of the following steps:

1. Highlighting his opponent’s weaknesses: age, health issues, incoherent speech, misleading verbal cues and rare public appearances.

2. Repositioning his opponent's image from president into a controlled and dependent politician — or, in Trump’s own words, a "puppet of the deep state".

3. Keeping attention fixed on the opponent, his mistakes while creating associative links between Biden and the issues he was not directly responsible for — rising food prices, the economy, inflation, withdrawal from Afghanistan, etc.

This strategy worked, and Biden’s approval rating had already stood at 34% by July 2024 [24]. Had the election been between Trump and Biden, Trump would have won, as polls consistently showed the Republican leading.

However, the dynamics of the race changed when Kamala Harris entered it. Donald Trump struggled to match his new opponent's strategy. He later likened the campaign to a boxing match where his opponent was swapped mid-fight. Moreover, legacy media (traditional news outlets) largely supported Kamala Harris while criticizing Donald Trump [7].

In such circumstances, Trump needed to reassess his campaign and change his strategy. Much attention was paid to "fake news" that were spread by both sides. While mainstream media — not just in the U.S. — promoted a narrative that Trump was the primary source of "fake news," this claim was far from the truth. In reality, his opponents were doing the same thing. For example, Joe Biden claimed that to the U.S., “There is one existential threat: It’s Donald Trump” [30], while Kamala Harris’s "fake news" were scrutinized by independent outlets [12]. The Democratic vice-presidential nominee, Tim Waltz, lied about serving in the war. Pro-Democratic media like The New York Times [25], CNN [21], and others published articles stating that Waltz "misspoke". Later, however, he admitted in an interview that it was untrue [14].

Viewing Trump through the lens of "fake news" is a manufactured narrative that needs to be considered as separate from reality. Since the 2016 campaign, pro-Democrat mainstream media have aggressively deployed this narrative against Trump — a practice that ironically popularized the very term "fake news". It is no coincidence that trust in traditional media has since plummeted to historic lows in the U.S., as we will explore later.

That said, Trump himself also engaged in spreading "fake news". In September 2024, during a televised debate, Donald Trump claimed that Haitian immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, were allegedly stealing and eating local pets. He insisted he had seen people on television saying, “My dog was taken and used for food”. However, local authorities — including Springfield’s city manager and police department — refuted these allegations, stating they had received no credible reports of such incidents. Later, this false claim became a recurring discursive tactic in his campaign rhetoric.

Analysis of the effectiveness of "fake news" on voter behavior remains a relatively new field of study. Research published in Social Sciences in 2024 [26] demonstrated that in highly competitive partisan environments, candidates spreading fake news may consolidate support among their voter base, especially when such actions align with the party's identity. However, this strategy risks alienating independent voters, making it potentially counterproductive in close races.

A 2017 study revealed that fake news eliciting anger are more "contagious" on social media than actual, truthful news [6]. This phenomenon occurs because anger speeds up the motivation to share content, thereby enhancing the "virality" of disinformation. Our analysis shows both candidates employed this tactic, for instance, when Harris labeled Trump a fascist [27].

Readjusting his political toolkit helped Trump

In U.S. elections, the contested or undecided states are a deciding factor. There have consistently been 6–7 such states over the last three electoral cycles: Michigan, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Wisconsin. While some analysts excluded North Carolina from the list of swing states during the Biden vs. Trump race, they left it on the list for the Trump vs. Harris race. Winning a majority of electoral votes in these states virtually guarantees a candidate’s victory.

This focus on swing states leads candidates to devote less attention to other reliable territories that vote predictably in every election cycle [31]. The number of states that matter in presidential elections keeps shrinking with each cycle. For comparison: in the 1950s, candidates typically fought for votes in about 20 states by campaigning there, holding rallies, and organizing public events. In 2020, Trump actively campaigned in only 10 states, Biden in only 7. Today, over 80% of voters live in states where neither party does any serious campaigning.

In 2016, Trump won 6 out of 7, losing in Nevada. In 2020, Trump lost in 6 out of 7 states, winning only in North Carolina. In 2024, he won in all 7 states. He was able to do so thanks to adjusting his campaign strategy.

The message. The U.S. presidential election is all about working with the federal agenda. Sociological studies show that the key issues of the 2024 election were immigration, the economy, and U.S. involvement in military conflicts [4]. These federal-level issues were crucial for all swing states, which is why Trump focused on developing a clear campaign message addressing all three major concerns of American society.

He provided definitive responses to all three issues. Limit the immigration, limit the U.S. military involvement, rebuild the economy by reducing government involvement. In contrast, Kamala Harris failed to articulate a clear position on immigration. Moreover, her economic proposals contradicted the statements made in 2020. For example, she advocated for universal healthcare in 2020, but abandoned this position by 2024. Her messaging appeared disjointed to voters compared to Trump's clearly defined platform, which he had refined over a full year of campaigning.

In every midterm election, voters punish the party of power for poor economic performance [32]. It comes in evident two-year cycles. Moreover, what matters is not so much personal finances but rather the perception of the national economy as a whole [18]. Both Biden and Harris were perceived as weak on economic issues, according to polls [22].

A significant factor was the demand for change. After four years of Biden's presidency, voters were looking for a candidate who would offer something new [8]. Trump emerged as that candidate, despite being an all-too-familiar figure to American voters. Unlike Harris, he presented a clearly defined campaign platform that encompassed both domestic and foreign policy.

Communication channels and new media. Simply fine-tuning a strong campaign message is not enough to win an election. What matters is reaching voters through the right communication channels. Donald Trump refused to work with traditional media outlets, which only 31% of Americans trusted in 2024 [3]. This distrust has remained consistently high since 2016. One key factor is the severe political polarization within society. For comparison, in 1972, 70% of Americans trusted the media while only 30% distrusted it.

Under these circumstances, Trump focused on "new media" that includes podcasts, internet shows, YouTube projects, and social media projects. This approach was adopted for several reasons. First, the format allowed for comprehensive responses to issues important to the audience. His three-hour podcast with journalist Joe Rogan [13], where Trump addressed all questions in detail, is an example of this advantage. As a matter of fact, Kamala Harris declined to appear on the show. This format eliminates the need to condense responses into brief television-style soundbites.

Secondly, this format is perceived as more informal compared to traditional TV shows. It allows candidates to present themselves not just as politicians, but as human beings — a crucial aspect for constructing an emotional image. For instance, during his appearance on Theo Von's podcast [29], Trump spoke about his late brother and his own views on addiction. Given Von's own history of struggling with addiction, this conversation helped Trump project an image of a leader capable of empathy in the eyes of voters.

Third, Trump more frequently encountered hosts who wished to get a sense of complex issues rather than simply hang a label on the politician. Had he been interviewed by FOX News, the journalists would have been more favorable toward him; conversely, appearances on CNN, ABC, or MSNBC would have yielded less sympathetic coverage. This strategy helped Trump to reach voters who watch and trust the new media. As a result, he avoided being repositioned by traditional media outlets, which predominantly portrayed him in a negative light.

The team. When Donald Trump ran for president in 2016, he did not have a public team of potential appointees for his administration. The 2024 campaign was a stark contrast to 2016. Trump successfully united figures of diverse political affiliations around his campaign, including conservative J.D. Vance, Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Kennedy's ex-party colleague Tulsi Gabbard. Moreover, Trump secured both public endorsement and financial support from billionaire Elon Musk. Each member of Trump's team was positioned to appeal to specific voter demographics. For example, Gabbard had to appeal to female voters, Musk to younger generations, and Kennedy to disaffected Democrats and undecided independents. This approach cultivated Trump's public image as a "mediator," demonstrating he had the right person for every objective.

By contrast, Kamala Harris' public team consisted of establishment figures: Joe Biden, Barack Obama, Beyoncé, Taylor Swift, and Dick and Liz Cheney. Half of these public figures have low approval ratings. Beyoncé became embroiled in the P. Diddy scandal, Joe Biden ended his campaign, Taylor Swift faced sports-related controversies due to her boyfriend, and Dick Cheney remains one of Democratic Party's most negative assets. Only Barack Obama maintained higher approval ratings than all others, both during and after his presidency [23].

Action plan. Beyond lacking a team in 2016, Trump also lacked a clearly defined blueprint of reforms and policy steps for his first 100 days in office. His election appeared almost accidental even to Trump himself — no team, no action plan. The 2024 campaign was the exact opposite. Trump now operated with two strategies. The official one was the Republican Party platform that echoed his public talking points. The unofficial one was "Project 2025," which Trump denied hist involvement in during debates with Kamala Harris. The first month of Trump's term as the 47th president revealed that 66% of implemented initiatives originated from "Project 2025" [19].

This project constitutes a comprehensive reform program designed to redistribute power within the U.S. government system, strengthening the executive branch. Its authors adhere to the unitary executive theory, according to which the president holds exclusive authority over all executive agencies. Under this doctrine, any Congressional actions aimed at limiting presidential authority — such as establishing independent agencies — are deemed unconstitutional.

What makes this 900-page document remarkable is that it proposes a radical (and this is not a value judgment) restructuring of the American government system. The document contains theses on both foreign and domestic affairs. Some proposals were publicly articulated during the campaign, such as challenging federal judges' ability to block presidential decisions. In addition, it details plans for mass deportation of illegal immigrants, abolishing the Department of Education and establishing a watchdog agency to reduce government spending.

Postal voting. Republicans have been criticizing postal voting as a potential method of election fraud. After the 2020 campaign, Republican candidates, including Trump himself, repeatedly criticized postal voting. While there is no evidence this voting method enables election fraud, Trump's criticisms towards it continued until 2024.

Upon becoming co-chair of the party, Lara Trump (his daughter-in-law) did an overhaul of the postal voting strategy. Instead of focusing solely on in-person voting, which is less convenient for the party's elderly voters, she encouraged the use of all available voting methods. Trump endorsed this approach. Over 88 million voters cast ballots by mail or through early in-person voting. In 2020, 37% of registered Republican voters applied for mail-in ballots; by 2024, the figure increased by 1% [10].

With that said, Donald Trump's 2024 victory resulted from him rethinking his campaign strategy.

Received 04.04.2025, revision received 18.05.2025.

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